Housing Affordability
Real Estate Broker · Douglas County, OR
Is housing affordable in Douglas County? The answer may surprise you, but 23 out of the last 30 years in Douglas County have seen more affordable housing than less. We've gone through times of greater and lesser affordability, but on the whole, buying a home has been within reach for the average family in Douglas County.
We are currently going through a time of less affordability (see above graph), primarily due to higher mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and household incomes that haven't kept up with rising costs. Some of the most affordable years to buy a home in Douglas County were between 2011-2016.
Housing Affordability Index (HAI)
12-Month Rolling Average · Douglas County · Last 48 Months
HAI of 100 means a median-income family earns exactly enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. Values below 100 indicate reduced affordability. Douglas County has fallen from 124 to 69 since May 2021.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. This index uses the value of 100 to represent the position of someone earning an area's median income, with values above 100 indicating that a home is more affordable and values below 100 indicating that a home is less affordable. Points below 100 indicate that a median family may struggle to qualify for a mortgage on a home in the area, while a value of 100 indicates that the typical family has exactly enough income to qualify. Points above 100 signifies that such a family has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home. The HAI for Douglas County today is 69 (see above graph). To return to more affordable levels near 100 we need 1 of 3 things to occur or some combination of the 3: either mortgage rates drop to the 3.5-4.5% range, home prices decrease by -26% to $240,000, or median household incomes increase by 35% to $80,000/yr. The most likely to occur is mortgage rates decrease and home prices soften some - the least likely is for household incomes to increase dramatically.
What It Takes to Qualify
Median Home vs. Income Needed · Douglas County · 2011 – 2024
| Year | Home Price | Interest Rate | P&I Mortgage Pymt | Median Household Income | Income Needed to Qualify |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $135,000 | 4.45% | $544 | $38,000 | $26,000 |
| 2016 | $175,000 | 3.65% | $642 | $43,000 | $30,000 |
| 2021 | $292,000 | 2.96% | $980 | $52,000 | $47,000 |
| 2024 | $325,000 | 6.72% | $1,681 | $59,000 | $80,000 |
In 2021, a median-income household earned more than enough to qualify for the median home. By 2024, the income needed to qualify ($80,000) had climbed well past the median household income ($59,000) — the affordability gap that pushed the HAI below 70.
Related Reading
Douglas County Market Update
The local housing market seems to have finally lost some stamina in maintaining the status quo as it has over the last 3 years. The number of active homes for sale at any given time has dramatically increased from 375 homes in 2022-2024 to over 550+ homes for sale in 2025.
Housing Inventory in Douglas County
Months of Supply · 12-Month Rolling Average · May 2021 – May 2025
Months of supply = active listings ÷ monthly sales pace. Douglas County inventory has more than doubled from 1.8 months in May 2021 to 3.9 months in May 2025, though still below the ~6-month balanced level.
Sold home prices are a lagging indicator and haven't changed much, but we've noticed buyer behavior has changed in a big way. Most notably, fewer sales are occurring, fewer offers are being written and accepted, and buyers can negotiate more favorable terms in an offer. We are watching closely to see if this is a major shift in the trend or just a short-term change. A lot will depend on the stability of the economy, jobs, and whether mortgage rates decrease in 2026.
Average Sales Price in Douglas County
12-Month Rolling Average · May 2021 – May 2025
The 12-month rolling average sales price rose from $292,303 in May 2021 to $357,032 in May 2025, but has moved largely sideways since early 2023 as the market cooled from its peak.
Douglas County Market
Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Housing Inventory is months of supply (active listings ÷ monthly sales). A balanced market is ~6 months. Days on Market (DOM) is days from listing to accepted offer. Absorption Rate is the percentage of inventory sold per month. Balanced = 15-20%.